Skip to primary content
Skip to secondary content

johnageddes

A blogging safari

johnageddes

Main menu

  • Home
  • About
  • Stepping out. Taking notice.

Tag Archives: Is social distancing working?

COVID-19 update. We are Social Distancing. Why are the numbers going up?

Posted on March 18, 2020 by johnageddes
4

We all feel a sense of urgency to get control over this darned COVID-19. It has been encouraging to see just how seriously most of us have taken the advice of our Public Health authorities. Even those who thought this was making a mountain out of a mole hill at first are starting to realize that it is serious. It’s scary to watch what is happening in Europe.

Our schools, restaurants, theatres have been closed. We are staying home in droves and our numbers in Canada are still going up. I’ve been asked why that is so if we are trying so hard to comply with the Social Distancing advice. We are sacrificing and not (yet) seeing a benefit. What gives?

There are a few things we have to keep in mind. This virus has been in our community, hovering unseen for a few days or maybe even weeks. It has an incubation period of around 5-7 days and maybe even up to 14 days. It can remain viable and infectious on shared hard surfaces for a few days. This means that even before we started the Social Distancing in earnest, there were some of us who had been exposed, maybe thought it was a cold, and unwittingly spread it to others. So even if we all locked ourselves up 100% it would take a couple of weeks to know whether that strategy was working because some of us would come down with symptoms from being exposed prior to our isolation. We have to be patient and persistent in order to see the results of this effort.

Secondly, we have had an influx of patients who have come home from other countries. Initially this was Canda’s main source of new infections. Unfortunately, before they were aware they were sick, they were able to pass it on. So we are getting a bit of a surge from that source and their contacts. Hopefully this will not blossom again when we have an influx of people coming home from winter vacations, March break or international travel. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE RETURNING TO CANADA FROM ANY OTHER COUNTRY SELF ISOLATE FOR 2 WEEKS. THIS MEANS STAYING AT HOME. DO NOT EVEN GO TO THE GROCERY STORE. HAVE SOMEONE DO GROCERY OR PHARMACY RUNS FOR YOU AND LEAVE YOUR ITEMS AT YOUR DOOR. Without this cooperation from our returning friends and relatives, we will expect another surge and wider spread.

Another thing we have to keep in mind is that we are trying to flatten the curve but we can’t elminate it. There will be infections. But can we keep a handle on them enough to adequately maintain our health care system so we can look after ALL our people, not just the COVID-19 patients.

The graph below shows how rigid restrictions have been effective in South Korea, Hong Kong and even China. Reported new cases in China in the last 24 hours have been less than in Canada (13 in China as opposed to over 50 in Canada.) Their restrictions have been dramatic and very rigidly enforced for a month or so. But they are winning. We want, a month from now to be winning as well.

Canada’s numbers are still on the rise. Can we change the angle?

I have been watching the numbers on Worldometer that are updated daily. If you are anxious about COVID, maybe you would prefer not to look at these. They show daily numbers – total cases, number of new cases in the past 24 hours, number of new deaths, total number of deaths and number of people who have been diagnosed and recovered. The last column, the number of cases per million population, is the one that interests me most and will be the one that we want to see level off if our management is being effective. Currently Canada has 17 cases per million population. Compare that to Italy where that figure is a startling 591. Our cases per million number will rise quite a bit over the next two weeks but if we are successful it should start to become more stable. That’s what flattening the curve means.

Realistically, we should prepare ourselves that the restrictions are not just going to be a 2 week thing. We are in this for the long haul. It is going to take several weeks or even a few months to get this to a manageable level. I can’t imagine that schools will reopen before the end of this school year. We will have to adopt these principles of Social Distancing for the next foreseeable future. Eventually we will find a medical treatment for this, I think. Immunization will be developed eventually as well. With time, there will have been enough people who have had the virus and recovered with some natural immunity to lower the prevalence and thereby lower the potential of spread. We need a concerted effort from everyone to tackle this. It will sort out. But it will take time. Hang in. Stay the course.

For a bit more on Flattening the Curve and Social Distancing, check out my last blog article here.

John A Geddes MSc MD CCFP

Kingston, Canada

March 18, 2020

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook

Like this:

Like Loading...
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged COVID-19, COVID-19 in Kingston, Flattening the curve, How will social distancing help, Is social distancing working?, Social Distancing, Why are numbers going up?, Why Flatten the curve | 4 Replies

CanAssist African Relief Trust Facebook Group

CanAssist African Relief Trust Facebook Group

Recent Posts

  • Asante sana
  • Amboseli Safari
  • This school visit choked me up a bit
  • My tree at Kona Baridi
  • Adam Nkuyan School – A Success Story

Archives

  • December 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • May 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Flickr Photos

# SaloméArtificial Street Photography 1Kettering, Ohio, 2022IN WINTER'S GRIPVegetazione metallica. ( Explore 7 febbraio 2023 )Un regard hypnotisant / A mesmerizing gazeColombages à la Petite-France
More Photos

Blog Stats

  • 162,666 hits

Blog Stats

  • 162,666 hits

Meta

  • Register
  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.com
Blog at WordPress.com.
  • Follow Following
    • johnageddes
    • Join 227 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • johnageddes
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...
 

    %d bloggers like this: